Iowa Iowa Iowa
Posted by Ryan on January 3, 2008
It’s the only thing happening in the American political universe at the moment! Michelle Malkin has a great summary of what’s going on today and what the projections of various folks in the blogosphere are. Also, Drudge has been on top of things all as usual. As I told my students today: January 3rd is the day when the first actual votes for 2008 get cast!
The polls are apparently so very close that I have a hard time picking a winner with any logic or method that may pan out accurately as “conventional wisdom” can truly produce multiple scenarios. So, let me just tell you who will be in hot water in my opinion no matter what happens:
She Who Must Not Be Named. If she loses, her reaction will be telling and analyzed by the press every moment until New Hampshire, keeping the idea of her loss on everyone’s mind.: Is she cracking up? to What’s with the nonchalant attitude? If she wins, O’Bama and Edwards will have to smear her or face the quick end of their respective campaigns, giving Republicans tons of ammo for the rest of the year.
Mike Huckabee. If he wins, the MSM and blogosphere will dig even more things up about him since he seems to be putting down everyone who doesn’t like him. This will eventually force Huckabee to go negative, despite his recent prognostications. If he wins or even loses by a little, the pressure will be on to stymie Huckabee’s mo’ as a newly aggressive rival, Rudy, begins his assault on Huckabee in states that Rudy is actually competing in: the Huckster gets a new enemy! If Huckabee gets trounced, then perhaps he was just a media sensation that flopped in the end, which will affect New Hampshire voters, who love McCain and are familiar with Romney.
On another note, this is the first election since 1952 when neither an incumbent President or Veep is on the ballot. Perhaps the American people are a bit cautious and unsure of who to vote for because a logical alternative is not in front of them: you could always accept or reject the policies of the incumbent, and despite the Dems best effort to give us this impression, George W. Bush is not, in fact, running.
Whatever ends up happening in Iowa, the delegate count will be pretty well dispersed, making Iowa not consequential in lieu of Super Tuesday, February 5.
Picture from “The Trail,” a Washington Post blog.