Posted by Sal on February 5, 2008
As those of us in twenty-four states go to the polls today, there are many things to watch. I’m only going to touch on the GOP side, as I have not been following the particulars of the Democrat race (save the constant crying before a major election of She Who Must Not Be Named).
California: This is a closed primary state, which is Winner-take-all by District. Polls are all over the map on this one. The state is winner-take-all by district, so if Romney does well in the majority of districts, he could significantly expand his deleagte count here. If he does not do well here, he is finished.
The South: This has been Huckabee’s stronghold, but he is now showing a sharp decline. Recent polls have McCain/Romney up or near tied in many states. Watch to see if either McCain or Romney make significant inroads in the south now that Huckabee is in decline.
Massachusetts: Yes, my home-state of MA is important today. It is a state Romney is expected to win, but it partitions its delegates proportionally. The margin of victory by Romney will be important as far as delegate count, so the higher the margin of victory, the better.
Midwest/West: There are several states that are holding caucus’ today. Romney needs to win most or all of them to remain competitive.
New York/New Jersey/Connecticut/Arizona: All these are Winner-take-all, and heavily favored for McCain. If he loses even one, it would be a major upset and probably finish him.
Delegate Count: At the end of the day, look for McCain to have around 600 delegates, Romney to have around 400, and Huckabee to have around 150 delegates. If McCain has significantly more and Romney significantly less than the above, the race is basically over. If the margin is closer by days end, look for Romney to have momentum. Either way, today is an extremely critical day in the GOP primary race.