Posted by Ryan on June 17, 2008
Usually a Presidential candidate who has just received their party’s nomination gets a traditional “bounce” in the polls in the weeks following their success.
However, Obama has not received such a bounce: the same bounce that had Mondale up by 20 in 1984 and Dukakis up by 17 in 1988. The bounce may be delayed, happening after the DNC in Denver this summer, but Democrats have usually jumped far ahead of Republicans at this point. Or, using the same example of 1984 and 1988 trouncing of those candidates, maybe the polls have gotten better and these numbers will hold through the Fall.
Obama and McCain are still within the margin of error in many polls nowadays, and Obama is still having trouble getting many SWMNBN supporters two weeks after she suspended her campaign. Even the Lefties at ABC see this as a problem.
It’s early, but McCain has an opportunity here in my opinion: a campaign which has so much internal party mending to do and even defends habeas corpus for Bin Laden is definitely not going to get a bounce from the American electorate.