It is beginning to look bad for Barack Obama. The last three days of Rasmussen polling have John McCain at 49-50% for the first time since Obama became the presumptive Democrat nominee. The Rasmussen poll is a 3-day rolling tracking poll of Likely voters, and the polling occured after the Sarah Palin interviews with Charlie Gibson. As most political scientists will tell you, when a candidate is at/over 50%, it spells trouble for the opposition. Most other polls show the race either tied or with a McCain lead. John McCain, in the last 2+ weeks, has turned this election upside down with the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin. Whether this holds or not is still undetermined, but as of right now, team Obama has an uphill battle to climb.
McCain is also polling well in most of the battleground states. McCain is showing a consistant lead in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, although trailing in Colorado and showing razor-thin leads in recent polling in New Mexico and Nevada.
Even more worrisome to Obama than the national polls and the battleground states, however, are a recent round of state polling that puts what are otherwise traditionally blue states in-play, such as Michican, Peensylvania, Minnesota, Wisconson, and Washington State. There’s even some anecdotal chatter about the liberal bastion of New York State! If Obama loses even one of these states, it is likely that he will lose the election.
Although the election results are far from certain, and anything can happen in the next 50+ days, the trend is towards McCain/Palin. Team Obama will have to do some serious work to reverse that trend.