Axis of Right

Three Native Rhode Islanders Commenting From the Right on Politics and Anything Else

Posts Tagged ‘Ike’

Historians: McCain’s Going to Lose

Posted by Ryan on June 15, 2008

According to this Politico story, historians (mostly liberal ones rooting for Obama I sure) give McCain a small chance of winning in the Fall.  (The rest of this post may seem like a little inside baseball if you’re not an historian.)

One historian compared this election to 1932, when FDR trounced Hoover.  Another compared it to the 1980 thumping of Jimmy Carter or Ike’s 1952 smackdown of Adlai Stevenson.  Some, more reasonable historians have related this to 1968, but on both ends: McCain as Humphrey, tied too closely to the party in power, as well as McCain as Nixon, taking advantage of a Democrat Party in total disarray.  Some cite historical cycles, which I can see hinders McCain in this case, and that those candidates tied to incumbent party’s popularity go against McCain in this cycle.

The article falls flat for me when it states that “the Democratic-controlled Congress is nearly as unpopular as the president.”  Um… not quite: the Democrat-controlled Congress is considerably LESS popular than Bush, by nearly half.  Remember, McCain is not an incumbent, and in the last non-incumbent race (1952) the war-hero trounced the intellectual and articulate liberal.  Plus, like Richard Nixon in 1968, everyone knows McCain, and unlike Jimmy Carter in 1976, the more we know about Obama, the more he seems like more of the same — he’s not a refreshing outsider like Carter seemed, rather Obama’s an unaccomplished political opportunist who occasionally doesn’t even know who his friends are.

I agree with the premise that McCain’s got a tough road, but so does Obama in my opinion:  we are at war, Obama is too inexperienced, has a cowardly voting record, and he’s not very bright when pushed on the issues. 

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Posted in Election 2008, Media Bias, Politics, The Iraq Front, War on Terror | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

McCain and the Republican Party Brand

Posted by Ryan on May 21, 2008

I just read this Politico piece by John Feehery on the Republican Party’s relationship with McCain.  His take is that Bush stalwarts like Hastert, Lott, and Delay are no longer on the scene and McCain, ever the frustrating maverick, is now the presumptive GOP nominee. Hence, the maverick becomes the savior in lieu of the Republican’s crushing Congressional defeats of late.

My take is simple: whenever the Republican Party gets wimpy and vague, it is going to lose.  After seventy years of playing identity/socialist politics, the Dems have the (undeserved) reputation of being the “nice” ones.  Republicans don’t have that reputation because ever since FDR, Americans have elected Republicans to do the dirty work of cleaning up Democrat messes (Ike was elected to fix the Korean War, Nixon was elected to fix Vietnam, Reagan was elected to fix everything Carter did, Dubya was elected to fix our image after BJ).  So if we’re going to run a campaign with pale pastels against the Dems, the folks go with the trusty nice people: the Dems. Ugh.  Running to the middle has been our problem because the American people see no differences or alternatives: hence an animus towards the Party in the White House… us! 

It’s not that conservatism has failed, it’s that the potential practitioners wussed out before doing enough great or significant things, falling victim to the Washington big-government=power/popularity culture.  The pale pastel approach will lead to serious electoral disaster this Fall, as it has in those three districts, especially with a potentially jazzed Obama base with a tested 50-state organization, ready to pound McCain and the Republican brand name into serious minority status.

Posted in Culture, Election 2008, Politics | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »