Axis of Right

Three Native Rhode Islanders Commenting From the Right on Politics and Anything Else

Posts Tagged ‘Michael Barone’

Pinkerton: Divided Government Means McCain Wins

Posted by Ryan on August 10, 2008

Jim Pinkerton from “The American Conservative” has a new artcile on the Fox Forum which lays out his idea about why he thinks McCain will win in November.  His thought: because the Dems are slated to sweep Congress, McCain will be elected President so that the “divided government” concept since World War II will be continued.

I have a problem with this thesis:  the numbers don’t look good for Republicans and winning Congress will be a tough slog, but I’ve heard that every election year except 2002 — there were serious tectonic forces at work in 1994, but aside from Michael Barone few people even noticed.  So, this idea that the Republicans have no shot is nothing new and lately has been wrong most of the time.  Plus, if the Republicans actually run against the socialist Democrat agenda (rather than as Democrat-lite) then I believe this year won’t be the apocalypse some think it will be. 

With Congressional approval ratings at historic lows, why wouldn’t there be a possibility for a Republican resurgence, especially in Blue-Dog districts?  Take back those seats and the Reps have the House.  The Senate’s another issue since only 1/3 are up this year, not all in safe states.  Yet, with energy being the #1 issue for voters and the Iraq War turning the corner, Republican ideas on war and the economy are actually and substantively being vindicated less than three months before Election Day. 

In the end, I suppose the moral of this election could be either: if you think you’re going to lose, you will; or win the battle in the arena of ideas and the victory is yours.

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Posted in economy, Election 2008, Media Bias, Politics, The Iraq Front | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Staying In “As Long as [She] Wants”

Posted by Ryan on March 30, 2008

I have thought for a while now that if She Who Must Not Be Named cannot be the Democrat nominee, then Barack Obama cannot be President.  I had a similar thought about how the Clinton’s handled Kerry in 2004 — he couldn’t win either in order to pave the way for her historic run in 2008.

SWMNBN has to know that her continued presence in this race is having a detrimental effect on her party’s chances in the Fall given all the bad blood that is in the air which may not be reconciled by August.  I also believe that she’s taking the advice of her husband by staying in: either she can persuade enough superdelegates to join her through a series of late and impressive victories while still screeching about Michigan and Florida, or she waits until a Reverend Wright-type scandal knocks Obama out of the running prematurely where she can pick up the nomination by default and thereby save the party.

As for Obama, he’s encouraging the Shrill One to stay in the race as he continues to fill in the typical populist empty suit mold that continues to persuade a number of short-sighted idealists to follow him.  Michael Barone, however, gives SWMNBN a little hope in this article, arguing a hypothetical way in which Bill’s wife can win this.  Barone is generally considered to be the foremost expert on micro-politics within individual Congressional districts nationwide.  While admitting his idea is hypothetical, he also adds to this notion that SWMNBN should not drop out and continue to fight until the end, which she has recently pledged she’d do.

Good for her.  Let the Democrat Uncivil War continue!

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The Red v. Blue State Dynamic

Posted by Ryan on March 22, 2008

I found this article by Michael Barone, political guru whose wisdom is usually spot on, where for the first time I read a piece addressing a thought I’ve had for a while: is this whole Red v. Blue state-thing a Bush phenomenon? 

Barone makes an argument that no, it’s not totally a George W. Bush phenomenon, but rather a trend that started in the 1990s during BJ’s tenure.  Barone cites the last time two consecutive elections were so close as they were in both 2000 and 2004: 1952 and 1956 which happened to have the same candidates and only four states shifting their votes!

In Barone’s view, cultural issues like religion v. relativism, rural v. urban, intervention v. self-interest have kept the electorate pretty static since the late 1990s. Yet, he contends that in 2008, this dynamic is no longer there with Bush and what he represents as a figure with whom to rally around or reject.  The Dems will try to paint McCain as a third Bush term, but it’s too early to see if that ridiculous accusation will stick.

So if the Red v. Blue state dynamic is not present in this election, what does one candidate do to flip the state colors?  Barone also believes that this election may focus around generational differences and outreach to industrial states, which in his view may skew Democratic in 2008.  I’m not sure I buy that analysis totally.  Young people like Obama, but young people don’t vote in large enough numbers.  Plus, Obama’s been wounded lately and the polls of Millennials have not yet reflected this major bump in the road.

Posted in Culture, Election 2008, Politics | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »